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Gartner Reveals Top Predictions for IT Organisations and Users for 2015 and Beyond

13 oktober 2014


Gartner, Inc. has revealed its top predictions for IT organisations and IT users for 2015 and beyond. Gartner’s top predictions for 2015 begin to examine a shift in the age old relationships between man and machine due to the emergence of digital business.

“For some time now, there has been an ongoing shift in the roles machines play in our everyday lives,” said Daryl Plummer, vice president and Gartner Fellow. “Compute-based machines are now being used to create an ever expanding variety of experiences that extend human endeavours. Machines are taking on more human characteristics in order to affect a more personalised relationship with human beings and we find ourselves contemplating a near-term future of a world in which machines and humans are co-workers, and possibly even co-dependents.”

Gartner analysts presented their findings during the annual Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, which is taking place in Orlando through Thursday. Gartner’s top 10 predictions envelop these ideas of human machine cooperation and growth.

1)    By 2018, digital business will require 50 per cent less business process workers and 500 per cent more key digital business jobs, compared with traditional models.

Near-Term Flag: By year-end 2016, 50 per cent of digital transformation initiatives will be unmanageable due to lack of portfolio management skills, leading to a measurable negative lost market share.

The rapid evolution of social media and mobile technologies is driving consumer behaviour. These behaviour trends and supporting technologies will significantly change how we live and go about our daily lives; for example — refrigerators will order groceries, robots will have them collected and drones will deliver them to your door, eliminating the need for grocery clerks and delivery drivers. This new digital business environment will profoundly change business processes along with the employment demographics and the need for higher competencies both for the consumer and the providers across all industries.


2)    By 2017, a significant disruptive digital business will be launched that was conceived by a computer algorithm.

Near-Term Flag: Through 2015, the most highly valued initial public offerings will involve companies that combine digital markets with physical logistics to challenge pure physical legacy business ecosystems.

The world economy has become ripe for digital disruption, as evidenced by global marketplace companies such as Uber and Airbnb, which are disrupting ground transportation and hotels, respectively. Since such businesses exhibit network effects (that is, their value increases with each new participant) they tend to form natural monopolies, but are challenged by very complex regulatory and marketplace dynamics, which makes them amenable to computational analysis. Meanwhile, the wealth creation upside of success in such models — valuations in the tens to hundreds of billions for companies less than five years old — represents an irresistible attraction for capital investment.

3)    By 2018, the total cost of ownership for business operations will be reduced by 30 per cent through smart machines and industrialised services.

Near-Term Flag: By 2015, there will be more than 40 vendors with commercially available managed services offerings leveraging smart machines and industrialized services.

Consumers’ need to get faster, cheaper, better products and services in a mode that supports any time, any place and any channel is fuelling the digital business revolution. Business processes and the entire value chain of business operations will shift from a labour-driven and technology-enabled paradigm to a digital-driven and human-enabled model. Smart machines will not replace humans as people still need to steer the ship and are critical to interpreting digital outcomes. Thus, smart machines will not replace labour; rather they will displace the complacency, inefficiency and add tremendous velocity to business operations. With consumers’ preference to use Internet and mobile services to drive business efficiencies and optimise time management, every industry is striving to improve the customer experience by simplifying, automating and making more intelligent end-to-end processes, minimising manual interventions and allowing the consumer to self-serve.


4)    By 2020, developed world life expectancy will increase by 0.5 years due to widespread adoption of wireless health monitoring technology.

Near-Term Flag: By 2017, costs for diabetic care are reduced by 10 per cent through the use of smartphones.

Wearable monitors hold huge promise. Today, a simple wristband can collect heartbeat, temperature and a number of environmental factors. Wireless heart monitoring patches, smart shirts and sensors in accessories promise more accuracy, choice and comfort to wearers. Transmission through wireless is straightforward. Data can be correlated against large cloud-based information repositories for sanctioned actions and through social networks for anecdotal advice. Gartner expects data from remote monitoring devices to provide continued access from patients to medical practitioners.

5)    By year-end 2016, more than $2 billion in online shopping will be performed exclusively by mobile digital assistants.

Near-Term Flag: By year-end 2015, mobile digital assistants will have taken on tactical mundane processes such as filling out names, addresses and credit card information.

Fixed events such as grocery replenishment will be common and will build trust for these types of assistants to take on more. By year-end 2016, more complex purchase decisions such as back-to-school backpacks and chained events such as scheduling: a highly rated, date-type movie along with dinner and car pick up on an anniversary will be easily achievable. Yearly autonomous mobile assistant purchasing will reach $2 billion dollars annually, representing about 2.5 per cent of mobile users trusting assistants with $50 a year. Digital assistants will be on multiple platforms, but mobile will be the most accessible, adopted device for digital assistants and will be the killer application by year-end 2016.


6)    By 2017, US customers’ mobile engagement behavior will drive mobile commerce revenue in the US to 50 per cent of US digital commerce revenue.

Near-Term Flag: A renewed interest in mobile payment will arise in 2015, together with a significant increase in mobile commerce (due in part to the introduction of Apple Pay and similar efforts by competitors, such as Google increasing efforts to drive adoption of its NFC-enabled Google Wallet).

Increasingly powerful smartphones and tablets, and the correspondingly rich and powerful applications available for each, enable consumers and business customers to interact seamlessly with companies, content and commerce experiences at virtually all stages of the purchase process. As device manufacturers and application developers improve usability and functionality and address users’ security concerns, devices will become even more of an essential tool for customers. This is particularly true of the younger demographics. Customers, who were born and grew up utilising the internet as a communications, information and transaction platform, and tethered to their mobile devices, will demand that service providers and retailers deliver on the expectation of connected and channel-agnostic commerce experiences.


7)    By 2017, 70 per cent of successful digital business models will rely on deliberately unstable processes designed to shift as customer needs shift.

Near-Term Flag: By the end of 2015, 5 per cent of global organisations will design “supermaneuverable” processes that provide competitive advantage.

As a result of business model innovation, some business processes must now be deliberately unstable. Deliberately unstable processes refer to processes that are designed for change and can dynamically adjust according to customer needs. They are vital because they are agile, adaptable and “supermaneuverable” according to shifts in customer needs. These supermaneuverable processes exist within the context of larger, more stable processes. They are a competitive differentiator because they can support customer interactions that are unpredictable and require ad hoc decision-making to enable the larger, more stable processes to continue. They are often impossible for other competitors to duplicate. Deliberately unstable processes will mandate a drastic shift in the ability of an enterprise and its people to change in a more fluid manner. The ability to change faster will leverage the concepts of organisational liquidity. This holistic approach, blending business model, processes, technology and people will fuel digital business success.


8)    By 2017, 50 per cent of consumer product investments will be redirected to customer experience innovations.

Near-Term Flag: By 2015, more than half of traditional consumer products will have native digital extensions.

In many industries, hyper-competition has eroded traditional product and service advantages, making customer experience the new competitive battlefield. This is no truer than in consumer products markets, which face disproportionate commodity pressure as consumer access to pricing and product information via search and social channels undermine brand loyalty. The reality is that focusing innovation on new products — and even new business models — is subject to shrinking periods of competitive advantage. Competitors and alternatives abound and product innovation is subject to accelerating commoditisation. Customer experience innovation remains the secret to lasting brand loyalty.

9)    By 2017, nearly 20 per cent of durable goods e-tailers will use 3D printing (3DP) to create personalised product offerings.

Near-Term Flag: By 2015, more than 90 per cent of durable goods e-tailers will actively seek external partnerships to support the new “personalised” product business models.

3DP is already having a profound impact on enabling start-ups to reduce infrastructure costs, compared with existing traditional manufacturing processes. As consumers increasingly show an appetite to control more product features and capabilities, e-tailers are recognising the business potential of moving from “configurable” products to “personalised” made-to-order products enabled by 3DP. Almost every single durable goods category will see a surge in 3DP-enabled personalisation and manufacturers will develop capabilities for bringing the consumer closer to the design experience. The companies that set the strategy early will end up defining the space within their categories. This requires a corporate culture that is supportive of non-conformance products, new front office “concierge” business capabilities, and back office IT and operations skills. It will require a new agility that goes beyond rigid process automation, and may require entirely new business systems.


10) By 2020, retail businesses that utilise targeted messaging in combination with internal positioning systems (IPS) will see a 5 per cent increase in sales.

Near-Term Flag: By 2016, there will be an increase in the number of offers from retailers focused on customer location and the length of time in store.

Digital marketers are increasingly focusing on mobile advertising and advanced analytics to take advantage of the rich opportunities presented by the growth of mobile device usage. Context is playing an increasingly central role in these efforts, enabling highly targeted ads based on recent purchases, buying habits, city of residence and interests. But amid all of this data, a customer’s current location is among the most important of contextual cues available. Mapping is being exploited by digital marketers, but is still used in relatively simple ways. Recently, however, indoor positioning systems have become increasingly viable. Rather than using satellites, these systems use low-energy Bluetooth beacons and wi-fi access points to pinpoint a mobile device’s location inside a building, with accuracies in the centimetre range. Support within newer mobile devices for IPS will enable location cues for targeted ads and messages, and real-time mapping to lead customers not only to store locations, but to specific products themselves.

Taken from Executive People

ICT Trends en Ontwikkelingen in 2013

22 december 2012


Waarom moeilijk doen als het ook makkelijk kan? Ik kwam een artikel tegen van ZDnet op Internet en vond het toepasselijk om de inhoud te delen omdat het een fraai overzicht geeft van de technische trends en ontwikkelingen die we komend jaar zullen tegenkomen.

Klik zelf even verder…. 

Als je het artikel hebt doorgelezen moet je voor de grap ook eens teruglezen wat ik eerder over trends en ontwikkelingen heb geschreven:

Augmented RealityBig DataMobile en Bring your Own.

Alles bij elkaar veranderd er dus niet zo veel en zijn deze trends gewoon te verklaren met de de theorie achter  Hype Cycles. Echt nieuwe ontwikkelingen zie ik nog niet op de radar. Waar ik wel erg benieuwd naar ben zijn de ontwikkeling tussen de verschillende marktpartijen. Welke fusies en overnames zullen er nu komen? HP en Cisco? Microsoft en Nokia? RIM failliet? Hoe zal het de storage leveranciers zoals EMC vergaan? En welke lokale partijen leggen het loodje omdat ze niet mee veranderd zijn van product naar service naar cloud leverancier? Dat vind ik veel leuker om te volgen!


Wormerland verbreekt onderhandeling met Glasvezel leverancier Reggefiber. Erg? Nee hoor!

10 september 2012


Vorige week berichtte Gemeente Wormerland dat zij de onderhandelingen met kabelaar Reggefiber heeft verbroken. Het is natuurlijk jammer dat het niet gelukt is om in Wormer en de buitengebieden fiber to the home te krijgen. Voor de toekomst zou dat een goede oplossing zijn. Toch is er geen man overboord. Ik schreef al eens een artikel over glasvezel en koperkabel en de “wet van Halewijn”.

In het augustusnummer van het plaatselijk blad Aktief werd een advertorial opgenomen waarin nogal wat onwaarheden stonden. Allereerst Lees Meer

Hallo ICT ondernemer, heb jij last van de crisis?

7 september 2012


Ik praat veel met ICT ondernemers en de laatste jaren hebben ze zonder uitzondering allemaal tegenvallende resultaten. De omzet loopt terug, de kosten stijgen en de winstmarges staan onder druk. En natuurlijk is de banken- of Europese crisis altijd de oorzaak van deze ellende.

Maar is dat ook echt zo? Ik voer die gesprekken omdat ik van mening ben dat met de juiste business strategie een bedrijf helemaal geen last hoeft te hebben van deze ellende. En enkele ICT ondernemers onderschrijven Lees Meer

Creatieve Vernietiging van applicaties om ICT te verbeteren

1 september 2012


Onlangs had ik een leuk gesprek met Mark Slooff van Outsystems over het product Agile dat zij op de markt brengen. Het gesprek ging natuurlijk over de eigenschappen van Agile maar ook over hoe de markt zich op dit moment ontwikkelt en hoe bedrijven daarmee omgaan. Dat Agile een product is met een forse groei potentie heeft alles te maken met de strategie, of juist het ontbreken er van, die bedrijven hanteren ten aanzien van het wijzigen van hun applicatie landschap.

Een favoriete tweet van mij is “In tijden van crisis moet je niet blijven sleutelen om het beter te maken. Stoppen, weggooien en opnieuw beginnen. Dat is change”. Ik kreeg daar enkele reacties op Lees Meer

IT Maturity

IT Maturity Scan

Vrijwel elke opdracht voor een nieuwe opdrachtgever begint met een assesment of maturity scan. Een IT maturity scan is een vorm om de volwassenheid van de totale IT omgeving (mensen, middelen en processen) in kaart te brengen. Het bestaat net als een second opinion uit verschillende inventarisaties en interviews.

Episteem heeft een eigen methode ontwikkeld om snel zo’n scan uit te voeren en resultaat te kunnen leveren. Deze methode heeft de naam Episteem Maturity Model for ICT gekregen, EMMI genoemd. Lees Meer

IT Strategie

IT Strategie Maturity en Leiderschap

Geen enkele organisatie kan een goed resultaat behalen zonder een goede strategie. Dat geldt ook voor de ICT van die organisatie. Of ICT nou ondersteunend is of zelfs het verschil kan maken, voor de ICT moet ook een duidelijke strategie bestaan die in lijn is met de business strategie want met de juiste ICT strategie kunt u concurrentie voordeel behalen.

Ik help mijn klanten bij het vertalen van hun organisatie strategie naar een duidelijke én haalbare ICT strategie. Een ICT Strategie die in lijn is met de business strategie geeft u een goed beeld van uw toekomstige ICT en Informatie architectuur en beantwoord ook de vraag of u het invullen van deze strategie zelf moet doen of moet laten doen. Lees Meer

Veranderen met IT

16 juli 2012


IT verandert

Met IT kun je veranderen en IT zal zelf veranderen. Dat is waar ik in geloof.

Daarom help ik bedrijven, organisaties en instellingen bij het veranderen met behulp van IT, of bij het veranderen van de IT zelf. Zoals de techniek en applicaties die in gebruik zijn of het veranderen van de IT organisatie. En daarbij hanteer ik een aantal eenvoudige en doeltreffende uitgangspunten:

Lees Meer

IT Manager verliest de regie

30 januari 2012


Gedreven door technologische trends als Cloud Computing, Social Media en Consumerization, verliest de IT afdeling steeds meer de controle over investeringen in IT. Het is een beweging die al langer zichtbaar is maar nu sterker waarneembaar wordt. Business Managers zien soms sneller de voordelen van nieuwe technologie dan hun collega IT Manager.

Lees Meer

De belangrijkste technologische IT trends voor 2012

8 november 2011


Gartner heeft vandaag de top 10 strategische technologische trends gepubliceerd. Zonder er diep op in te gaan, geef ik hierbij het lijstje van onderwerpen waar IT de komende 3 jaar aandacht aan moet schenken:

  1. Media Tablets en overige Mobiele devices
    1. BYOD moet ondersteund worden door de IT afdeling,
    2. Schenk aandacht aan security door zaken mogelijk te maken, niet onmogelijk!
    3. Er is geen voorkeur voor een specifieke form-factor, alles is mogelijk,
    4. Tablets kennen een behoorlijke prijs erosie dus let op bij aanschaf,
    5. Zorg voor een robuuste WI-FI infrastructuur,
    6. Data verdwijnt gemakkelijk in de Cloud. Bied mogelijkheden om data te delen om er controle over te houden.
  2. Mobiele applicaties en interfaces Lees Meer
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